This week, global gold prices have opened lower with a correction of 0.35%, standing at USD 2,434.45 per troy ounce on Monday (08/05/2024). This downward trend has been ongoing since Friday (08/02/2024), when gold prices closed with a slight decline of 0.09%, reaching USD 2,443.29 per troy ounce.
This decline is attributed to market sentiment awaiting clarity on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts scheduled for September. Despite last week’s inflation data showing improvements in economic conditions, recent economic data from the U.S. government, released over the weekend, has sparked new concerns.
Previously, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Fed had maintained the central bank’s interest rate at 5.25%-5.5% and indicated that inflation is moving towards the target of 2%.
This statement had fueled market optimism about a promised interest rate cut in early September. However, current market conditions have shifted due to sharply declining U.S. employment data.
Unemployment claims have risen significantly by 23,000 to 249,000 claims, deviating from the predicted increase of 1,000 to 236,000 claims. Additionally, the U.S. unemployment rate has exceeded market expectations.
For June 2024, U.S. unemployment data showed a rate of 4.1%. The market had anticipated this figure to remain stable in July 2024. However, it actually increased by 0.2% to 4.3%, marking the highest rate since October 2021.
Gold Prices Today in Indonesia
In Indonesia, gold prices have also experienced a decline, continuing the slight decrease from the market close last week. Today, Monday (08/05/2024), the purchase price of Antam gold is IDR 1,420,000 per gram, down IDR 8,000 from Saturday (08/03/2024), when it was IDR 1,428,000 per gram.
A similar decline is observed in the buyback price of Antam gold today. The buyback price has decreased by IDR 8,000 from IDR 1,281,000 per gram to IDR 1,273,000 per gram.
On the Treasury platform, gold prices have also fallen. As of today, Monday (08/05/2024), Treasury gold is offered at IDR 1,313,680 at 09:00 WIB.
This price is down approximately IDR 4,000 from the previous figure of IDR 1,317,008 at the close of trading last week on Saturday (08/03/2024). The buyback price offered is IDR 1,262,587 per gram.
Future Gold Price Predictions
Despite U.S. inflation data being satisfactory for the Fed as it nears the 2% target, the recent economic data from the U.S. has raised concerns.
In addition to the previously discussed employment data, the non-farm payrolls sector saw a drastic decline from 179,000 in June 2024 to just 114,000 in July 2024, far below the market prediction of 175,000.
U.S. and European stock markets are also experiencing difficulties, with several indices weakening and reaching their lowest points of the year.
Typically, amidst sudden recession threats, gold becomes a preferred asset for investors seeking to secure their holdings. Gold is considered the most stable and secure investment amid economic uncertainty.
However, as of today, Monday (08/05/2024), the gold market has not yet benefited from the worsening U.S. economic news.
The current beacon of optimism for the gold market is the Fed’s planned interest rate cut, confirmed to occur in September this year with a likelihood of 70%.
Summary of Last Week’s Gold Prices
Last week, global gold prices opened with a 0.47% increase to USD 2,396.70 per troy ounce following the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) data, reflecting the U.S. economic conditions through inflation rates.
On Tuesday (07/30/2024), gold prices closed at USD 2,411.06 per troy ounce, marking a 1.15% increase. This upward trend continued on Wednesday (07/31/2024) with a 1.65% rise to USD 2,448.09 per troy ounce.
From August 1, 2024, gold prices began to decline until the end of the week, closing on Friday (08/02/2024) at USD 2,443.29 per troy ounce, reflecting a 0.09% decrease. Despite this decline, gold prices saw an overall weekly increase of 2.42%.
Price fluctuations also occurred in Indonesia. On Monday (07/29/2024), the price of Antam gold in Indonesia opened at IDR 1,402,000 per gram, an increase of approximately IDR 6,000 from the previous week.
On Tuesday (07/30/2024), Indonesian gold prices saw a slight correction, dropping to IDR 1,400,000 per gram. Prices then rose again, reaching a historical high on Thursday (08/01/2024).
Last week, Indonesian gold prices achieved a new record of IDR 1,433,000 per gram. Subsequently, prices slightly corrected due to profit-taking actions by investors capitalizing on high gold prices.
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